Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.086285 14.985858 17.036203 19.410221 22.079623 24.984650 28.381662
2025-02-16 10.202204 12.753102 15.724477 19.426832 23.900778 29.115965 35.638055
2025-02-23 8.691439 11.497542 14.929880 19.410057 25.073416 31.961388 40.936377
2025-03-02 7.652981 10.646402 14.469448 19.666954 26.499065 35.117630 46.748043
2025-03-09 6.780149 9.860626 13.946906 19.702854 27.529088 37.715931 51.879308
2025-03-16 5.990709 9.081110 13.327433 19.507611 28.174630 39.781835 56.361512
2025-03-23 5.452624 8.583323 13.024537 19.681590 29.279451 42.463218 61.750120
2025-03-30 5.126139 8.351397 13.061086 20.310501 31.024958 46.078763 68.573127
2025-04-06 4.628489 7.806108 12.582922 20.133045 31.570074 48.001536 73.071421
2025-04-13 3.996334 6.985369 11.615019 19.133709 30.812213 47.974023 74.714317
2025-04-20 3.768821 6.790130 11.589187 19.562315 32.208432 51.144214 81.166021
2025-04-27 3.551809 6.589444 11.533179 19.928068 33.512048 54.218819 87.594425
2025-05-04 3.241127 6.206588 11.160922 19.773163 34.009387 56.126386 92.403172
2025-05-11 2.939960 5.811431 10.735802 19.497438 34.289388 57.703336 96.771095
2025-05-18 2.732746 5.563487 10.536910 19.577535 35.138667 60.194318 102.658591
2025-05-25 2.568513 5.378638 10.430988 19.803724 36.234039 63.117704 109.351680
2025-06-01 2.392569 5.153807 10.233931 19.850754 37.016969 65.553802 115.342757
2025-06-08 2.198601 4.874362 9.913744 19.650587 37.350899 67.247739 120.166589
2025-06-15 2.072047 4.717214 9.807054 19.826926 38.346598 70.082292 126.992870
2025-06-22 2.011557 4.689862 9.943467 20.459617 40.185457 74.423345 136.532390
2025-06-29 1.860160 4.456515 9.662083 20.281119 40.535064 76.200310 141.742132
2025-07-06 1.632704 4.035894 8.976544 19.275077 39.293621 75.124750 141.941399
2025-07-13 1.573157 3.980821 9.024122 19.706558 40.764714 78.913485 150.821536